15881 Purple Sage Rd #40

Caldwell, ID 83607

$58,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$765
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $389/mo
• Annual: $4,669/yr
• Cap rate: 14.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.31%
• DSCR: 2.26
• 1% rule: 3.35%
• Cash to close: $16,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $407 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Middleton District (suburban): math 41% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #29 of 92 in ID (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Purple Sage Elementary (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #213 of 357 statewide, top 60%, 497 students, 25% FRL); Middleton Academy (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #132 of 169 statewide, top 78%, 161 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Middleton District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.