15881 Purple Sage Rd #40 · Caldwell, ID 83607

$58,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1998 Est $75k · 21% under $765/mo HOA · 39% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this opportunity in the Middleton School District!! This cozy 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offers 924 square feet of living space with a functional split-bedroom floor plan. The open living area flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring ample cabinetry and generous counter space. The private primary suite is situated on one side of the home, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are located on the opposite side, offering comfort and flexibility for family or guests. Step outside to enjoy the covered outdoor patio and deck area, shaded with mature trees and surrounded by a large yard. Complete with a tool shed for extra storage. Owner Occupied. Please giv

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Spacious kitchen
• Open living area

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $765

Exterior

• Utilities: Community water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile/manufactured home on a rented lot; Built in 1998
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Corner lot; Manual sprinkler system; Pressurized irrigation sprinkler system; Located in a mobile home park

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven/Range (freestanding); Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered vinyl plank; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $389 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.1% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#88 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Middleton District (suburban): math 41% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #29 of 92 in ID (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Purple Sage Elementary (math 40% / reading 47%, grade F, #213 of 357 statewide, top 60%, 497 students, 25% FRL); Middleton Academy (math 5% / reading 44%, grade F, #132 of 169 statewide, top 78%, 161 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Middleton District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $407 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $57,133 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.28%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,844
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24764 Sunburst Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (0%)	9mo	$215,000	$233	80
15881 Purple Sage Rd #50	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	896 (-3%)	8mo	$55,000	$61	79
15881 Purple Sage Rd Trlr 43 #43	0.00mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-6%)	23mo	$55,000	$64	61
15881 Purple Sage Road Trlr 42 Trlr 42	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (+14%)	21mo	$85,000	$81	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $18,634
• Equity at exit: $8,782

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $62,491
• Equity at exit: $5,093

Cash invested: $16,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83607

• Home prices YoY: -32.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $58,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,725
• Closing costs: $1,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $765 · $9,180/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,900 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,900 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $58,900 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,900 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,900 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,900 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,299
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$9,180
• − Depreciation: −$1,713
• Taxable income: $4,543
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,090
• After-tax cash flow: $3,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middleton District
• NCES district ID: 1602130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,089
• Composite: 42.6/100
• National rank: #3191
• State rank: #29 of 92 in ID

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #10145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 76,816
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 35,491
• Household income: $85,399
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 446.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.23%
• Current HPI: 310.4118
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $59,900 IMLS