24075 Colleen Ct

Happy Valley, AK 99556

$219,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Active · 730 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-128/mo
• Annual: $-1,542/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 730 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#167 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 730 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?