24075 Colleen Ct · Happy Valley, AK 99556

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 730 Days on market

Built 1958 2.00 ac lot $122/sqft · 43% below area Est $381k · 43% under ↓ 27% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (32.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#167 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 730 days — a 12% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $56k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,936 (32.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 730 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,443
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -42.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23527 Nikolai St	0.53mi	3/2.5	2,016 (+13%)	11mo	$545,000	$270	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,968
• Equity at exit: $91,967

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $61,722
• Equity at exit: $136,868

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99556

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,469 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$309
• Net cashflow: $-128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,632

Max offer price $196,302

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 730 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 729 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 727 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $219,000 Active 726 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 723 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 722 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 721 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 720 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 717 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 716 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 715 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 714 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 713 DOM
14. 2025-07-15
    price $219,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

15. 2025-06-16
    status Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

16. 2025-05-25
    price $229,900 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

17. 2024-09-02
    price $239,900 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

18. 2024-08-08
    price $250,000 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

19. 2024-06-05
    listed $275,000 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Centrally located between Ninilchik and Homer. This fixer upper is a perfect location for the seafaring enthusiast. The large shop offers adequate storage for boats and gear. The house would be perfect for summer crews or possible B&B. The seller is motivated, bring your offer!

20. 2023-06-07
    price $200,000
21. 2023-02-27
    price $240,000
22. 2023-02-18
    price $279,000
23. 2023-02-03
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,006/yr (+$84/mo · 169.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,411
• − Management: −$1,411
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$5,517
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,324
• After-tax cash flow: $-218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Happy Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #24095

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, AK
• Population (ZIP): 2,858

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Current HPI: 169.1953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-26.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $219,000 AKMLS
• 2025-06-16 Relisted — AKMLS
• 2025-05-25 Price Changed $229,900 AKMLS
• 2024-09-02 Price Changed $239,900 AKMLS
• 2024-08-08 Price Changed $250,000 AKMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed $275,000 AKMLS
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $200,000 AKMLS
• 2023-02-27 Price Changed $240,000 AKMLS
• 2023-02-18 Price Changed $279,000 AKMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listed $299,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

-3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $595 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.