3412 E Valley Forge Ln

Mead, WA 99021

$119,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax + insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$660
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,593/yr
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $33,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#388 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mead School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #23 of 291 in WA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $119k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Mead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.