3412 E Valley Forge Ln · Mead, WA 99021

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2009 $116/sqft · 10% below area Est $132k · 10% under $660/mo HOA · 31% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready home in the desirable Shenandoah park area. This well cared for Mead home is a rare find with a storage shed in the back to suit all your storage needs. Backing up to a beautiful shared park area, perfect for entertaining and added privacy.

Key facts

• Interior rehab
• Modern floor plan
• Energy star rated

Tags

• MODERN FLOOR PLAN
• INTERIOR REHAB
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• ENERGY STAR RATED
• FULL APPLIANCE PKG

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $660 per month
• HOA & community: HOA with a monthly fee of $660; Association transfer fee of $40 paid by buyer; Community recreation area; Located in the Shenandoah park community

Exterior

• Parking: Off-site parking
• Utilities: High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Marlette make; Single-story (manufactured house); Skirted foundation
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot; City street and paved road frontage; Other structures — see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Smart thermostat; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.3% in Mead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#388 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mead School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #23 of 291 in WA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $119k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 31% of rent.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,017
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -5.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15010 N Shenandoah Forest Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-4%)	7mo	$75,000	$77	73
14824 N Surrey Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+5%)	13mo	$120,000	$111	73
14715 N Surrey Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-4%)	10mo	$114,000	$116	70
3428 E Valley Frg	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+5%)	21mo	$130,000	$120	68
14711 N Shenandoah Forest Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	9mo	$106,200	$115	62
3320 E Valley Forge Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+15%)	12mo	$125,000	$106	60
4202 E Lane Park Rd #2	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (-4%)	8mo	$65,000	$66	55
14615 N Cuba St	0.60mi	3/1.0	924 (-10%)	2mo	$185,000	$200	54
3928 E Lane Park #14 Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	924 (-10%)	11mo	$97,900	$106	52
4202 E Lane Park Rd #20	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	947 (-8%)	21mo	$120,000	$127	39
3928 E Lane Park Rd #34	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	23mo	$65,900	$71	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,080
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $15,080
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99021

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$660
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,876

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2228 E Winger Rd Spokane, WA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,150	$1.43	43d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $660 · $7,920/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $119,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $124,900 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    listed $124,900 Active 740-char remark
16. 2019-05-31
    soldstatus $61,000 Sold 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Move-in ready home in the desirable Shenandoah park area. This well cared for Mead home is a rare find with a storage shed in the back to suit all your storage needs. Backing up to a beautiful shared park area, perfect for entertaining and added privacy.

17. 2019-05-07
    historical Pending on Inspection 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Move-in ready home in the desirable Shenandoah park area. This well cared for Mead home is a rare find with a storage shed in the back to suit all your storage needs. Backing up to a beautiful shared park area, perfect for entertaining and added privacy.

18. 2019-04-30
    listed $65,000 New 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Move-in ready home in the desirable Shenandoah park area. This well cared for Mead home is a rare find with a storage shed in the back to suit all your storage needs. Backing up to a beautiful shared park area, perfect for entertaining and added privacy.

19. 2017-05-04
    soldstatus $36,900
20. 2017-04-21
    historical
21. 2017-04-06
    listed $36,900
22. 2016-09-02
    historical
23. 2016-08-01
    listed $39,900
24. 2015-02-23
    historical
25. 2014-09-12
    listed $51,000
26. 2014-05-13
    historical
27. 2014-04-03
    listed $56,900
28. 2014-04-03
    historical
29. 2014-01-02
    listed $56,900
30. 2014-01-01
    historical
31. 2013-08-01
    listed $56,900
32. 2010-05-28
    soldstatus $31,000
33. 2009-09-14
    listed $31,000
34. 2008-06-09
    historical
35. 2007-08-27
    listed $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 17 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,064
• − Management: −$2,064
• − HOA: −$7,920
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,244
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$299
• After-tax cash flow: $2,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mead School District
• NCES district ID: 5304920
• Math proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,176
• Composite: 59.93/100
• National rank: #1811
• State rank: #23 of 291 in WA

Livability — Mead

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #388
• US rank: #15310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mead, WA
• Population (ZIP): 9,226

Population outlook (Spokane County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 531,314 people
• By 2030: 549,278 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 577,822 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 598,188 · +12.6%
• By 2075: 630,744 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 622,360 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Portuguese 5% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spokane

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.0% · R 51.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+8.3 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.33%
• Current HPI: 354.3985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $119,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-01 Listed $124,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Listed $124,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-31 Sold (MLS) $61,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-07 Contingent — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-30 Listed $65,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-04 Sold (MLS) $36,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-21 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-06 Listed $36,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-02 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-01 Listed $39,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-02-23 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-12 Listed $51,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-13 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-03 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-03 Listed $56,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-02 Listed $56,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-01 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-01 Listed $56,900 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-28 Sold (MLS) $31,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-14 Listed $31,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-09 Listing Removed — SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-27 Listed $34,000 SPOKANEMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-22.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $102 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.