384 Stove Pipe City Rd

Vergennes, VT 05491

$72,950C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Built 1980 · Manufactured · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,630/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $742/mo
• Annual: $8,908/yr
• Cap rate: 18.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.61%
• DSCR: 2.94
• 1% rule: 2.23%
• Cash to close: $20,426

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in VT, #3,051 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 104 units permitted in Addison County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Addison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 18.5% vs local median 1.6% in Vergennes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.