384 Stove Pipe City Rd · Vergennes, VT 05491

$72,950

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1980 1.25 ac lot Est $61k · 20% over ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 88 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is foreclosed / bank-owned / REO
• HOA & community: Mobile park: none

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (dirt and gravel)
• Utilities: Electric: circuit breaker(s); Sewer: unknown; Water source: unknown; Internet: unknown; No utilities listed
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Existing construction; Yellow exterior color
• Construction: Built in 1980; T1-11 and vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot; Dirt and gravel driveway; Road access: dirt, gravel, public

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bath
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; 1 full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $742 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#13 in VT, #3,051 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 104 units permitted in Addison County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $504 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Addison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $68,573 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.61%
• DSCR: 2.94
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $60,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
384 Stove Pipe City Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	700 (0%)	1mo	$61,000	$87	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $35,510
• Equity at exit: $10,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $92,007
• Equity at exit: $6,307

Cash invested: $20,426 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05491

• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,584/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $690

Max offer price $72,950

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $784	-5% $763	+0% $742	+5% $722	+10% $701
Rent	-10% $614	-5% $678	+0% $742	+5% $807	+10% $871
Rate	-1.0pp $779	-0.5pp $761	base $742	+0.5pp $723	+1.0pp $704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,238
• Closing costs: $2,188
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $72,950
3. 2026-03-09
   status Active
4. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-21
   price $74,950
6. 2026-01-08
   listed $84,950 Active
7. 2025-11-05
   price $89,950
8. 2025-10-14
   price $99,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,584 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,086
• − Property taxes: −$1,584
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − Depreciation: −$2,122
• Taxable income: $8,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $6,924/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Vergennes

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #3051

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (Addison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,078 people
• By 2030: 36,688 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 34,988 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 32,561 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 27,584 · -25.6%
• By 2100: 22,720 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Iranian 6% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Addison

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.9) · D 66.4% · R 30.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: 39.2pp · 2024: 35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.9 2020: D+39.4 2016: D+33.6 2012: D+39.7 2008: D+39.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.49%
• Current HPI: 266.2657
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-27.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $72,950 PrimeMLS
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $74,950 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-08 Listed $84,950 PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $89,950 PrimeMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $99,950 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,584 · +49.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.