4301 Forder Gardens Pl Unit H

Mehlville, MO 63129

$170,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$171
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-177/mo
• Annual: $-2,120/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (21.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blades Elem. (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 430 students, 30% FRL); Oakville Sr. High (math 25% / reading 58%, grade F, #234 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,780 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $170k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.