4301 Forder Gardens Pl Unit H · Mehlville, MO 63129

$170,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Condo public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Rare opportunity to own a truly no-step, handicap-accessible main-floor condo with assigned parking conveniently located near the entrance. Thoughtfully updated and move-in ready, this 2-bedroom, 2 full bath home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living with accessibility features that are difficult to find. Inside, you'll find new luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout, an updated kitchen featuring beautiful quartz countertops, refreshed cabinetry, updated hardware, and modern finishes. Both bathrooms have been tastefully refreshed with updated vanities, fixtures, and finishes. The popcorn ceilings have been removed, creating a clean, contemporary feel throughout the home. The spacious p

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1996
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building features include janitorial service, lighting, signage, storage, and Wi‑Fi
• HOA & community: Part of Forder Gardens association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities: association management, common ground, laundry, parking; Association fee covers other items

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (common, community structure); Asphalt surface; 1 parking space total
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Ameren electric; Cable available and connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water available; Natural gas not available
• Home design: Residential condominium; Updated/remodeled condition; One level; Private ownership; Apartment building structure; Accessible approach with ramp and accessible common area; visitor bathroom
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Pitched/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Balcony; Rain gutters; Panel doors, sliding doors, and storm doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Exhaust fan
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Smart thermostat; Additional storage
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located in hall, inside unit; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-177 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#232 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mehlville R-IX (suburban): math 31% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 324 in MO (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blades Elem. (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 430 students, 30% FRL); Oakville Sr. High (math 25% / reading 58%, grade F, #234 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 1,780 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $170k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,665 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-38,743
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-47,999
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63129

• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$171
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $138,792

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4372 Casa Brazilia Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,400	$1.66	2d	15	0.05mi
4278 Chateau de Ville Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,350	$1.32	44d	1	0.20mi
1100 Kingbolt Circle Dr Unit 1106B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	740	$1,125	$1.52	24d	1	0.30mi
6905 Colonial Woods Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	868	$1,450	$1.67	44d	1	0.65mi
4333 Arrow Tree Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	899	$1,550	$1.72	44d	1	0.80mi
4320 Mcadoo Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.81mi
4334 Mcadoo Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	20d	1	0.83mi
39 Kassebaum Ln #206 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,425	$1.43	8d	1	0.90mi
4851 Lemay Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,665	$1.74	2d	7	1.26mi
4650 E Concord Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	2d	1	1.36mi
4227 Drambuie Ln St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$960	$1.17	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: parking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $170,000 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,649 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$458/yr (+$38/mo · 38.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,283
• − Management: −$1,283
• − HOA: −$2,052
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$5,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,221
• After-tax cash flow: $-899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mehlville R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2920670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $62,254
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4995
• State rank: #126 of 324 in MO

Livability — Mehlville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #11310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mehlville, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 51,553
• Household income: $94,888
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 743.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% American 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -246.14%
• Current HPI: 208.6962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+138.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $170,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $71,240 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,191 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.