33233 N 224th Ave

Wittmann, AZ 85361

$279,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,150/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$465
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-1,020/mo
• Annual: $-12,235/yr
• Cap rate: 1.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.66%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (52.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (58.8% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $115k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Morristown Elementary District (4251) (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #315 of 501 in AZ (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morristown Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 147 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 35% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Morristown Elementary District (4251) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $279k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.