33233 N 224th Ave · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1985 7,036 sqft lot Est $254k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOBILE GARDENS COMES THROUGH AGAIN! VALUE!! 1280 SQ.FT. OF COMFORTABLE LIVING AT THIS PRICE AND YOU OWN THE ROOMY 60 X 120 LOT TOO!!! - 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OFFER ELECTRIC AND GAS APPLIANCES, AC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.-TWO COVERED CARPORTS- SEPERATE STORAGE AREA - RV HOOK-UP - FULL LANDSCAPE WITH WATERING SYSTEM - CITRUS TREES AND MORE! MUCH TO OFFER WITH THIS HOME - A MUST SEE - `WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY`IS NOW `OPEN` - OWNERS ARE MOVING BACK TO OREGON `HEALTH REASONS`$25.00 a year HOA FOR CLUBHOUSE USE..NOT MANDATORY TO JOIN..$10.00 PER YEAR ROAD MANTENCE FEE.. -CALL LISTING OFFICE FOR AN APPOINTMENT TO SHOW.....

Key facts

• 7,036 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1985

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 7,036 (assessor); Lot features include gravel/stone front and back; Directions: From Grand Ave, turn south on Happy Ln, left on 224th Ave to property.
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with garage door opener and direct/rear vehicle access
• Utilities: Onsite well for water; Septic tank (septic connected); Power details not specified
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood siding and painted exterior; Composition roof with reflective coating
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Shed(s); Gravel/stone front and back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Pantry; 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Solar tubes (natural lighting); Storage
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (52.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (58.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $115k (58.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Morristown Elementary District (4251) (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #315 of 501 in AZ (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morristown Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 147 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 35% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Morristown Elementary District (4251) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $279k implies a 260% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,000 (58.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 59% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.66%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 20.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,144
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22315 W Harmony St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,162 (-4%)	3mo	$130,000	$112	85
22436 W Pleasant Ln	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,189 (-2%)	16mo	$280,000	$235	71
33201 N 223rd Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+14%)	19mo	$289,900	$209	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $87,029
• Equity at exit: $251,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.93×
• Total profit: $307,388
• Equity at exit: $542,036

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 20.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$349 /mo · $4,185/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $-1,020

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,441

Max offer price $131,461

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-827	-5% $-923	+0% $-1,020	+5% $-1,116	+10% $-1,212
Rent	-10% $-1,110	-5% $-1,065	+0% $-1,020	+5% $-974	+10% $-929
Rate	-1.0pp $-879	-0.5pp $-949	base $-1,020	+0.5pp $-1,092	+1.0pp $-1,165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33401 N 224th Ave Wittmann, AZ	2.0	1.0	704	$1,150	$1.63	1d	1	0.06mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $279,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-03-11
    price $289,000
16. 2026-01-28
    listed $299,000 Active
17. 2007-04-20
    soldstatus $77,500 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    MOBILE GARDENS COMES THROUGH AGAIN! VALUE!! 1280 SQ.FT. OF COMFORTABLE LIVING AT THIS PRICE AND YOU OWN THE ROOMY 60 X 120 LOT TOO!!! - 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OFFER ELECTRIC AND GAS APPLIANCES, AC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.-TWO COVERED CARPORTS- SEPERATE STORAGE AREA - RV HOOK-UP - FULL LANDSCAPE WITH WATERING SYSTEM - CITRUS TREES AND MORE! MUCH TO OFFER WITH THIS HOME - A MUST SEE - `WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY`IS NOW `OPEN` - OWNERS ARE MOVING BACK TO OREGON `HEALTH REASONS`$25.00 a year HOA FOR CLUBHOUSE USE..NOT MANDATORY TO JOIN..$10.00 PER YEAR ROAD MANTENCE FEE.. -CALL LISTING OFFICE FOR AN APPOINTMENT TO SHOW.....

18. 2007-04-17
    soldstatus $77,500
19. 2007-03-21
    historical 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    MOBILE GARDENS COMES THROUGH AGAIN! VALUE!! 1280 SQ.FT. OF COMFORTABLE LIVING AT THIS PRICE AND YOU OWN THE ROOMY 60 X 120 LOT TOO!!! - 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OFFER ELECTRIC AND GAS APPLIANCES, AC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.-TWO COVERED CARPORTS- SEPERATE STORAGE AREA - RV HOOK-UP - FULL LANDSCAPE WITH WATERING SYSTEM - CITRUS TREES AND MORE! MUCH TO OFFER WITH THIS HOME - A MUST SEE - `WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY`IS NOW `OPEN` - OWNERS ARE MOVING BACK TO OREGON `HEALTH REASONS`$25.00 a year HOA FOR CLUBHOUSE USE..NOT MANDATORY TO JOIN..$10.00 PER YEAR ROAD MANTENCE FEE.. -CALL LISTING OFFICE FOR AN APPOINTMENT TO SHOW.....

20. 2006-09-27
    listed $80,500 619-char remark

    Show marketing remark (619 chars)

    MOBILE GARDENS COMES THROUGH AGAIN! VALUE!! 1280 SQ.FT. OF COMFORTABLE LIVING AT THIS PRICE AND YOU OWN THE ROOMY 60 X 120 LOT TOO!!! - 3 BEDROOM 1.75 BATH OFFER ELECTRIC AND GAS APPLIANCES, AC AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING.-TWO COVERED CARPORTS- SEPERATE STORAGE AREA - RV HOOK-UP - FULL LANDSCAPE WITH WATERING SYSTEM - CITRUS TREES AND MORE! MUCH TO OFFER WITH THIS HOME - A MUST SEE - `WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY`IS NOW `OPEN` - OWNERS ARE MOVING BACK TO OREGON `HEALTH REASONS`$25.00 a year HOA FOR CLUBHOUSE USE..NOT MANDATORY TO JOIN..$10.00 PER YEAR ROAD MANTENCE FEE.. -CALL LISTING OFFICE FOR AN APPOINTMENT TO SHOW.....

21. 1999-01-07
    soldstatus $55,000
22. 1995-06-09
    soldstatus $46,000
23. 1985-04-29
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$4,185
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$17,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,256
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morristown Elementary District (4251)
• NCES district ID: 0405340
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,094
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #12763
• State rank: #315 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2413.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $289,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $299,000 ARMLS
• 2007-04-20 Sold (MLS) $77,500 ARMLS
• 2007-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records
• 2007-03-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-09-27 Listed $80,500 ARMLS
• 1999-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1995-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1985-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $437 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.