8220 Carrleigh Pkwy #11

West Springfield, VA 22152

$360,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1968 · Townhouse · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,905/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax + insurance: −$543
• HOA: −$735
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-872/mo
• Annual: $-10,459/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $100,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $360k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-872 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (42.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (19.3% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $206k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in VA, #4,050 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cardinal Forest Elementary (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 632 students, 30% FRL); Irving Middle (math 71% / reading 87%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 1,163 students, 15% FRL); West Springfield High (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #99 of 319 statewide, top 31%, 2,663 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.