8220 Carrleigh Pkwy #11 · West Springfield, VA 22152

$360,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1968 $248/sqft · 8% below area Est $391k · 8% under $735/mo HOA · 25% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8220 Carrleigh Pkwy, a 3-bedroom townhome in the Cardinal Forest community, located in the highly sought-after West Springfield area. Hardwood floors run throughout the main and upper levels, and the location is a commuter’s dream, making this a home that is hard to pass up Step inside to a welcoming foyer that opens to a spacious living room filled with natural light from the front-facing windows. The kitchen features a brick backsplash, tile flooring, and a dedicated eat-in area, creating a space for everyday meals. A half bath and main-level washer and dryer add to the home's everyday convenience. Upstairs you will find three bedrooms, one full bath, and one half bath. T

Key facts

• Brick backsplash
• Concrete patio
• Storage shed

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRICK BACKSPLASH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• CONCRETE PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• REAR GATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property managed by a property manager; No pet restrictions (pets allowed)
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee of $735; HOA covers common area maintenance, lawn maintenance, management, pool(s), recreation facility, road maintenance, snow removal, exterior building maintenance, gas, heat, parking fee, sewer, and water; Community amenities include swimming pools (indoor and outdoor), club house, community center, reserved/assigned parking, playgrounds, walking paths, picnic area, party room and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: One assigned parking space (space #11); On-street parking available; Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Condominium ownership; Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Brick construction; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Above- and below-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Community pool; Common grounds; Clubhouse; Community center; Tot lots/playground; Jog/walk path; Picnic area; Party room; Tennis courts; Reserved/assigned parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom on the upper level; An additional half bathroom on the main level; Total: 1 full bath, 2 half baths
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with natural gas; Programmable thermostat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Hot water heated by natural gas
• Interior features: Very good condition; Built-in microwave; Garbage disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-872 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (42.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $290k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (42.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#125 in VA, #4,050 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cardinal Forest Elementary (math 59% / reading 76%, grade B+, #372 of 1,108 statewide, top 34%, 632 students, 30% FRL); Irving Middle (math 71% / reading 87%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 1,163 students, 15% FRL); West Springfield High (math 76% / reading 77%, grade A-, #99 of 319 statewide, top 31%, 2,663 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 21% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 92 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,028 (42.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,707
• List price: $360,000
• Delta: -7.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8220 Carrleigh Pkwy #11	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,452 (0%)	0mo	$380,000	$262	100
8142 Carrleigh Pkwy #126	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,452 (0%)	2mo	$442,000	$304	92
5921 Minutemen Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,452 (0%)	4mo	$390,000	$269	86
8256 Carrleigh Pkwy	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+6%)	2mo	$150,000	$97	78
8356 Forrester Blvd #470	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,452 (0%)	9mo	$420,000	$289	77
8422 Penshurst Dr #594	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-1%)	10mo	$425,000	$295	71
8425 Penshurst Dr #595	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,452 (0%)	9mo	$425,000	$293	70
8145 Carrleigh Pkwy	0.08mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,320 (-9%)	7mo	$500,000	$379	68
5818 Torington Dr #859	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,442 (-1%)	4mo	$420,000	$291	64
8530 Barrington Ct #938	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-3%)	7mo	$300,000	$213	61
8437 Forrester Blvd	0.44mi	3/3.0	1,540 (+6%)	7mo	$680,000	$442	60
5816 Torington Dr #860	0.54mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,397 (-4%)	6mo	$415,000	$297	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-116,653
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-184,289
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22152

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,905 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,719/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$735
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $-872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,008

Max offer price $206,028

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5904 Bayshire Rd West Springfield, VA	2.0	1.0	978	$2,200	$2.25	2d	1	0.09mi
5801 Rexford Dr #801 Springfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1104	$2,275	$2.06	43d	1	0.56mi
5610 Kirkham Ct Springfield, VA	4.0	3.5	1500	$3,200	$2.13	43d	1	0.90mi
5215 Lonsdale Dr Springfield, VA	3.0	3.0	1408	$3,350	$2.38	4d	1	0.94mi
8525 Burling Wood Dr Springfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$3,225	$3.33	1d	16	1.07mi
5626 Fort Corloran Dr Burke, VA	3.0	2.5	1449	$3,600	$2.48	12d	1	1.28mi
8705 Sheridan Farms Ct Springfield, VA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,100	$1.82	43d	1	1.31mi
8729 Sheridan Farms Ct Springfield, VA	4.0	3.5	1740	$3,550	$2.04	7d	1	1.35mi
8729 Sheridan Farms Ct Springfield, VA	4.0	3.5	1740	$3,650	$2.10	18d	1	1.35mi
6212 Hillside Rd Springfield, VA	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,750	$1.51	17d	1	1.37mi
7504 June St Springfield, VA	3.0	1.0	1404	$2,850	$2.03	3d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $735 · $8,820/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 2100-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $360,000 Active 2100-char remark
3. 1983-09-13
   soldstatus $75,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,719 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,719 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,719
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,788
• − Management: −$2,788
• − HOA: −$8,820
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable loss: −$16,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — West Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #4050

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Springfield, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 29,066
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,814
• Household income: $165,906
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 263.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 19% Asian 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 7% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.12%
• Current HPI: 355.9566
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.87%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+402.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $380,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $360,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1983-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $75,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,719 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.