2097 Sonora Hardin Springs Rd

Sonora, KY 42776

$190,500C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 880 sqft · Built 1987 · Other · Active · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,028/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$999
• Tax + insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $455/mo
• Annual: $5,456/yr
• Cap rate: 9.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.23%
• DSCR: 1.46
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $53,340

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-176 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#342 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin County (suburban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #47 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 419 students, 51% FRL); East Hardin Middle School (math 33% / reading 56%, grade D, #36 of 217 statewide, top 18%, 780 students, 30% FRL); Central Hardin High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #28 of 254 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hardin County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.