12 Stanley Dr

Lincoln, ND 58504

$298,500F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 904 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,746/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,565
• Tax + insurance: −$193
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-379/mo
• Annual: $-4,551/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $83,580

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (41.5% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $175k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#38 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 49% / reading 33%, grade F, #130 of 236 statewide, top 55%, 650 students, 22% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $211k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.