12 Stanley Dr · Lincoln, ND 58504

$298,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 904 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1985 8,281 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very attractive home with 4 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, double garage, extra parking pad, fenced yard with large deck. Beautiful remodeled kitchen with breakfast bar. stainless steel appliances, storage under deck.

Key facts

• Garden-level windows
• Sprinkler system
• Open-concept living

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• MAINTENANCE-FREE DECK
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• GARDEN-LEVEL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-379 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (22.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (41.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (41.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#38 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary School (math 49% / reading 33%, grade F, #130 of 236 statewide, top 55%, 650 students, 22% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $211k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $174,556 (41.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,017
• Equity at exit: $44,507

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-96,699
• Equity at exit: $25,809

Cash invested: $83,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,746 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,565
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,226

Max offer price $231,507

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-295	+0% $-379	+5% $-464	+10% $-548
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-448	+0% $-379	+5% $-310	+10% $-241
Rate	-1.0pp $-229	-0.5pp $-303	base $-379	+0.5pp $-457	+1.0pp $-535

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,625
• Closing costs: $8,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $298,500 Active
3. 2015-06-25
   soldstatus 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very attractive home with 4 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, double garage, extra parking pad, fenced yard with large deck. Beautiful remodeled kitchen with breakfast bar. stainless steel appliances, storage under deck.

4. 2015-06-25
   soldstatus $211,000

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very attractive home with 4 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, double garage, extra parking pad, fenced yard with large deck. Beautiful remodeled kitchen with breakfast bar. stainless steel appliances, storage under deck.

5. 2015-04-15
   listed $226,900 209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (209 chars)

   Very attractive home with 4 bedrooms, 1 3/4 baths, double garage, extra parking pad, fenced yard with large deck. Beautiful remodeled kitchen with breakfast bar. stainless steel appliances, storage under deck.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,925 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,103/yr (+$175/mo · 256.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,947
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,721
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$1,492
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,676
• − Management: −$1,676
• − Depreciation: −$8,684
• Taxable loss: −$10,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,430
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #5588

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+31.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $298,500 GNMLS
• 2015-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $211,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-25 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2015-04-15 Listed $226,900 GNMLS

Property tax history

-5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · -60.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.