4518 NW 4 St

Miami, FL 33126

$770,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,180 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,038
• Tax + insurance: −$1,018
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$848
• Net cashflow: $-1,865/mo
• Annual: $-22,376/yr
• Cap rate: 3.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.38%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $215,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $770k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $441k (42.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $404k (47.5% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $404k (47.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in FL, #2,724 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.5%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $625k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.4% vs local median 1.9% in Miami — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,040/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 3930% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.