110 Cebolla Ln

Vado, NM 88072

$159,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Built 1984 · Other · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,277/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-90/mo
• Annual: $-1,079/yr
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.7% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#253 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $159k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.