110 Cebolla Ln · Vado, NM 88072

$159,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Other · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

1.25 acres of land featuring installed utilities, breathtaking mountain views, and a 4-bedroom, 3-bath single-wide manufactured home ready for your vision! This fixer-upper offers incredible potential for renovation, customization, or investment. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings while adding your personal touch to make it your own. With plenty of space inside and out, the possibilities are endless. Don't miss this opportunity--schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 1.25 acres of land
• Installed utilities
• Mountain views

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES OF LAND
• INSTALLED UTILITIES
• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• FIXER-UPPER
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#253 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $159k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,711 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.42%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.66% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $27,908
• Equity at exit: $86,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $90,873
• Equity at exit: $147,334

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88072

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$199 /mo · $2,385/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,391

Max offer price $145,993

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-25
   listed $159,000 Active
3. 2023-01-12
   soldstatus
4. 2019-01-18
   soldstatus $50,000
5. 2009-03-09
   soldstatus
6. 2006-10-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,385
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$3,839
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$921
• After-tax cash flow: $-157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,461
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8298
• State rank: #21 of 29 in NM

Livability — Vado

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #24785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vado, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,689

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 15% White 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 84%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 15% English-only · Spanish 85%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.66%
• Current HPI: 280.0035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+218.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-25 Listed $159,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2023-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2009-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $315 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.