1141 Arbor Crk Unit 3D

Valley Park, MO 63122

$164,999D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 947 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,622/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$373
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-189/mo
• Annual: $-2,266/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#118 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Barretts Elem. (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #46 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 353 students, 7% FRL); South Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 541 students, 20% FRL); South High (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,598 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $165k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Valley Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?