1141 Arbor Crk Unit 3D · Valley Park, MO 63122

$164,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 947 sqft · Condo public records · 66 Days on market

Built 2003 $174/sqft · 10% below area Est $184k · 10% under $373/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Condominum complex of excellent construction quality and modern design. Open floor concept joining the dining room - kitchen - and living rooms. Beautiful vaulted ceilings are a noticable feature on this third floor condo in the rear of the complex. The master bedroom suite (with walk-in closet, double bowl/sink vanity, and walk-in shower) is on the opposite end of the floor plate from the second bedroom and hallway full (second) bathroom. Generous sized covered deck off of the living room. Full sized washer and dryer within the condo. New Micowave and oven/stove. Plenty of parking options on both side of the building. Schedule a showing today! Location: Suburban, Upper Level.

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Open floor concept
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR CONCEPT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• COVERED DECK
• FULL SIZED WASHER AND DRYER
• NEW MICROWAVE
• PLENTY OF PARKING OPTIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-189 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $132k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (1.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Valley Park — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#118 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Barretts Elem. (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #46 of 1,115 statewide, top 5%, 353 students, 7% FRL); South Middle (math 41% / reading 55%, grade C-, #84 of 391 statewide, top 22%, 541 students, 20% FRL); South High (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #65 of 521 statewide, top 13%, 1,598 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $165k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,641 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.90%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,829
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: -10.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-32,397
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,626
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63122

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,622 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,957/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$373
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,861

Max offer price $131,641

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-95	-5% $-142	+0% $-189	+5% $-236	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-317	-5% $-253	+0% $-189	+5% $-125	+10% $-61
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-147	base $-189	+0.5pp $-232	+1.0pp $-275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1040 Huntington Hill Dr Manchester, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,273	$1.58	0d	9	0.58mi
885 Forest Ave #302 Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	25d	1	0.92mi
885 Forest Ave Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	45d	1	0.92mi
895 Forest Ave #203 Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	25d	1	0.92mi
895 Forest Ave Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	16d	1	0.92mi
101 Forest Pkwy Valley Park, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	718	$1,460	$2.03	4d	6	1.21mi
21 Fernridge Ave Valley Park, MO	3.0	2.0	988	$1,950	$1.97	21d	1	1.30mi
1157 Timberbrook Dr Kirkwood, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1336	$1,864	$1.40	0d	27	1.45mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $373 · $4,476/yr
• Likely covers: cable
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-01
   price $164,999 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   Great Condominum complex of excellent construction quality and modern design. Open floor concept joining the dining room - kitchen - and living rooms. Beautiful vaulted ceilings are a noticable feature on this third floor condo in the rear of the complex. The master bedroom suite (with walk-in closet, double bowl/sink vanity, and walk-in shower) is on the opposite end of the floor plate from the second bedroom and hallway full (second) bathroom. Generous sized covered deck off of the living room. Full sized washer and dryer within the condo. New Micowave and oven/stove. Plenty of parking options on both side of the building. Schedule a showing today! Location: Suburban, Upper Level.

2. 2026-03-22
   listed $179,900 Active 698-char remark

   Show marketing remark (698 chars)

   Great Condominum complex of excellent construction quality and modern design. Open floor concept joining the dining room - kitchen - and living rooms. Beautiful vaulted ceilings are a noticable feature on this third floor condo in the rear of the complex. The master bedroom suite (with walk-in closet, double bowl/sink vanity, and walk-in shower) is on the opposite end of the floor plate from the second bedroom and hallway full (second) bathroom. Generous sized covered deck off of the living room. Full sized washer and dryer within the condo. New Micowave and oven/stove. Plenty of parking options on both side of the building. Schedule a showing today! Location: Suburban, Upper Level.

3. 2013-04-19
   soldstatus $87,100
4. 2013-04-10
   soldstatus 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   Exciting, open, vaulted condo with lots of amenities! You will love this one the minute you enter! Open and airy floor plan with vaulted ceilings throughout! Plenty of oak 42" cabinets and lots of upgraded countertop space in fully equipped vaulted kitchen! The front loading washer and dryer also stay! There is a spacious master bedroom with a huge walk in closet and a master bath! There are two full baths with a split bedroom floor plan! Enjoy your morning coffee on your private covered deck overlooking wooded scenery. Only one set of stairs if entering from the East side of the building. You will love this location close to highways and shopping! Relo Addendums are required and should be noted on any contract as to such.

5. 2013-03-07
   listed $79,900 738-char remark

   Show marketing remark (738 chars)

   Exciting, open, vaulted condo with lots of amenities! You will love this one the minute you enter! Open and airy floor plan with vaulted ceilings throughout! Plenty of oak 42" cabinets and lots of upgraded countertop space in fully equipped vaulted kitchen! The front loading washer and dryer also stay! There is a spacious master bedroom with a huge walk in closet and a master bath! There are two full baths with a split bedroom floor plan! Enjoy your morning coffee on your private covered deck overlooking wooded scenery. Only one set of stairs if entering from the East side of the building. You will love this location close to highways and shopping! Relo Addendums are required and should be noted on any contract as to such.

6. 2009-09-08
   soldstatus $124,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,957 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,957 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,957
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − HOA: −$4,476
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,188
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,077/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parkway C-2
• NCES district ID: 2923580
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $83,551
• Composite: 50.5/100
• National rank: #1851
• State rank: #18 of 324 in MO

Livability — Valley Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #7284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 8,423
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 41,634
• Household income: $136,385
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 738.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -413.98%
• Current HPI: 242.2782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.63%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+32.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $164,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $87,100 Public Records
• 2013-04-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-07 Listed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $124,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,957 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.