24 Surf St

Sea Bright, NJ 07760

$1,999,000F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 850 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,483
• Tax + insurance: −$1,851
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$863
• Net cashflow: $-9,086/mo
• Annual: $-109,032/yr
• Cap rate: 1.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.49%
• DSCR: 0.18
• 1% rule: 0.21%
• Cash to close: $559,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9k ($-109k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (80.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $411k (79.4% below list).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.88M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $394k (80.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $60k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#492 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $151k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $615k; list at $2.00M implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 80% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.