Falkner III G Plan

Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$340,990F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,109
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-752/mo
• Annual: $-9,025/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.01%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $112,624

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $341k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.7% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.