Falkner III G Plan · Gulf Hills, MS 39564

$340,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,092 sqft · SingleFamily · 106 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III G blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, providing ample space for growing families, multigenerational living, or anyone seeking more room to enjoy life. The open-concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces, enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both style and functionality to everyday life. The master suite is a serene retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower for a touch of luxury. The exterior boasts a combination of durable brick and siding, creating a balanced aesthetic with long-lasting curb appeal. A covered rear porch offers a perfect outdoor space for relaxation or hosting gatherings. The two-car garage adds extra storage and parking convenience. With energy efficiency at its core, the Falkner III G ensures lower utility costs while delivering year-round comfort, making it a smart choice for those seeking a stylish, sustainable home.

Key facts

• Double vanity
• Walk in pantry
• Large walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• WALK IN PANTRY
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• DOUBLE VANITY
• SEPARATE WALK IN SHOWER
• COVERED REAR PORCH

🏗️ New construction. The $340,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $402,228.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $341k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-752 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#38 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,664 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.01%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,228
• List price: $340,990
• Delta: -15.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5716 Fiddlers Pointe	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,986 (-5%)	1mo	$355,885	$179	86
11805 Moss Creek Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+11%)	0mo	$386,071	$167	78
6021 Cardona Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-8%)	1mo	$334,730	$174	76
11584 Paige Cv	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+10%)	3mo	$319,500	$139	69
11625 Talla Dr	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+10%)	3mo	$370,000	$161	68
5904 Moreton Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,925 (-8%)	9mo	$599,900	$312	51
6932 Osprey Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,885 (-10%)	2mo	$346,000	$184	50
11645 Brookstone Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,253 (+8%)	10mo	$346,000	$154	48
6991 Osprey Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,265 (+8%)	6mo	$326,000	$144	45
6959 Osprey Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,936 (-8%)	6mo	$323,000	$167	44
6009 Switzer Cv	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,386 (+14%)	0mo	$499,999	$210	42
1209 Nelson Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,781 (-15%)	3mo	$429,990	$241	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-117,331
• Equity at exit: $59,973

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-180,715
• Equity at exit: $34,777

Cash invested: $112,624 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39564

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,109
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$503 /mo · $6,033/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-752

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,519

Max offer price $293,403

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,557
• Closing costs: $12,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11404 Harrison Ct Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,950	$1.41	21d	1	0.46mi
107 Surgeres Pl Ocean Springs, MS	4.0	2.5	2830	$3,400	$1.20	44d	1	0.84mi
1508 Government St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	3.0	1557	$1,950	$1.25	21d	1	1.31mi
111 Armand Oaks Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	44d	1	1.31mi
156 Lafayette Cir Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	21d	1	1.47mi
2718 Government St Ocean Springs, MS	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,800	$1.19	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,990 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,990 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,990 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,990 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $340,990 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,990 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $340,990 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,990 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,990 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $340,990 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $340,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,990 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,990 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,990 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,990 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $340,990 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    price $340,990 1197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1197 chars)

    Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III G blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, providing ample space for growing families, multigenerational living, or anyone seeking more room to enjoy life. The open-concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces, enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both style and functionality to everyday life. The master suite is a serene retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower for a touch of luxury. The exterior boasts a combination of durable brick and siding, creating a balanced aesthetic with long-lasting curb appeal. A covered rear porch offers a perfect outdoor space for relaxation or hosting gatherings. The two-car garage adds extra storage and parking convenience. With energy efficiency at its core, the Falkner III G ensures lower utility costs while delivering year-round comfort, making it a smart choice for those seeking a stylish, sustainable home.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $337,990 Active 1197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1197 chars)

    Designed with both functionality and comfort in mind, the Falkner III G blends modern living with timeless style across 2,092 square feet of living space and a total area of 2,634 square feet. This thoughtfully laid-out home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms, providing ample space for growing families, multigenerational living, or anyone seeking more room to enjoy life. The open-concept living area seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and family spaces, enhanced by recessed can lighting and a walk-in pantry that brings both style and functionality to everyday life. The master suite is a serene retreat, featuring a large walk-in closet, double vanity, and a separate walk-in shower for a touch of luxury. The exterior boasts a combination of durable brick and siding, creating a balanced aesthetic with long-lasting curb appeal. A covered rear porch offers a perfect outdoor space for relaxation or hosting gatherings. The two-car garage adds extra storage and parking convenience. With energy efficiency at its core, the Falkner III G ensures lower utility costs while delivering year-round comfort, making it a smart choice for those seeking a stylish, sustainable home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,531
• − Property taxes: −$6,033
• − Insurance: −$2,011
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − Depreciation: −$11,701
• Taxable loss: −$16,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,088/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulf Hills

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #7310

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gulf Hills, MS
• County: Jackson County · 82,196 people
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 43,240
• Household income: $78,596
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 734.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 204.2244
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-05 Listed $337,990 Zillow