2054 Lewis Creek Cir NE

Bolivia, NC 28479

$239,005D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,934/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-274/mo
• Annual: $-3,283/yr
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $66,921

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.1% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bolivia Elementary (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 496 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.