2054 Lewis Creek Cir NE · Bolivia, NC 28479

$239,005

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,442 sqft · Townhouse · 30 Days on market

Built 2025 1,742 sqft lot Est $239k · at est. $150/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bell Creek Townhomes - Where Modern Comfort Meets Everyday Convenience Step into the Poplar, a beautifully designed townhome crafted for the way you live today. A covered front porch leads into a bright, inviting foyer that opens to an airy, open-concept main level. The spacious great room flows effortlessly into a gourmet kitchen featuring white cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a functional kitchen island, LED lighting throughout, and hard-surface flooring in all common areas. Just off the dining area, a 10x14 rear patio offers the perfect outdoor escape and overlooks open space and mature trees, giving you both privacy and a peaceful backdrop. Upstai

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Gourmet kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LIGHT-FILLED DINING AREA
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-274 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#549 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bolivia Elementary (math 50% / reading 43%, grade D-, #542 of 1,410 statewide, top 39%, 496 students, 99% FRL); South Brunswick Middle (math 41% / reading 49%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 572 students, 100% FRL); South Brunswick High (math 62% / reading 57%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,172 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 9% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $193,429 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.91%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,372
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2036 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	6mo	$231,470	$161	95
2044 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	6mo	$252,295	$175	93
2045 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	7mo	$231,065	$160	92
2033 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	6mo	$248,550	$172	92
2024 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	8mo	$267,450	$185	92
2053 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	3mo	$242,990	$169	92
2041 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,442 (0%)	6mo	$235,000	$163	91
2028 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	4mo	$219,990	$153	90
2049 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	6mo	$239,560	$166	88
2040 Lewis Creek Cir NE	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,442 (0%)	7mo	$241,517	$167	88
1571 Dusk Cv NE	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,652 (+15%)	11mo	$230,000	$139	35
1581 Dusk Cv NE	0.62mi	3/3.0	1,652 (+15%)	12mo	$220,000	$133	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-10,097
• Equity at exit: $84,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $17,548
• Equity at exit: $114,589

Cash invested: $66,921 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28479

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,281

Max offer price $199,412

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,751
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   status Active
3. 2026-01-12
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-10
   price $239,005
5. 2025-12-19
   listed $219,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,857
• − Management: −$1,857
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$7,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Bolivia

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #20206

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,059
• Population (ZIP): 6,971

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 159.4516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-12 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $239,005 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $219,990 Hive MLS