441 Cognewaugh Rd

Cos Cob, CT 06807

$1,795,000D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,899 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax + insurance: −$1,466
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,256
• Net cashflow: $-2,394/mo
• Annual: $-28,727/yr
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $502,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.07M (40.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $154k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $142k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#72 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Street School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #28 of 553 statewide, top 7%, 387 students, 4% FRL); Central Middle School (math 60% / reading 71%, grade A-, #26 of 175 statewide, top 16%, 506 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.09M; list at $1.79M implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$247k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.