441 Cognewaugh Rd · Cos Cob, CT 06807

$1,795,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,899 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1957 1.45 ac lot Est $2195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sun-drenched and privately set on 1.45 level acres, this spacious 4-bedroom, 3 full bath mid-country home offers tranquility just minutes from town and steps from Mianus River Park. Sliding doors connect the indoor living spaces to the outdoor deck, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living ideal for entertaining. A finished lower level provides flexible space for a playroom or home office. Recent improvements include a newer roof, boiler, and well pump, offering a solid foundation for future updates and personal touches. Surrounded by peaceful grounds and nature, this special property presents a wonderful opportunity to create lasting memories. Existing in-ground pool is not operational and will convey as-is.

Key facts

• 1.45 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank; Well water
• Home design: Single family residence; Built in 1957; Architectural shingle roof; Shingle siding; Zoning: RA-2
• Construction: Shingle siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Built in 1957; Shed(s) on property
• Exterior features: Terrace; Deck; Private pool; Level lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Oil heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate shower; Finished basement; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.79M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.37M (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.07M (40.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (40.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#72 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenwich School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #12 of 153 in CT (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Street School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #28 of 553 statewide, top 7%, 387 students, 4% FRL); Central Middle School (math 60% / reading 71%, grade A-, #26 of 175 statewide, top 16%, 506 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $154k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $142k appreciation (7.9% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$247k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 35% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.09M; list at $1.79M implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,074,049 (40.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.72%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,194,543
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
484 Cognewaugh Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,832 (-2%)	2mo	$1,900,000	$671	79
144 Highline Trl	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,800 (-3%)	24mo	$1,050,000	$375	39
174 Cat Rock Rd	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,575 (-11%)	24mo	$1,950,000	$757	28
306 Stanwich Rd	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,330 (+15%)	22mo	$2,800,000	$841	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $575,211
• Equity at exit: $1,352,029

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $1,780,240
• Equity at exit: $2,672,697

Cash invested: $502,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06807

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$9,413
• Tax from tax record: −$718 /mo · $8,614/yr
• Insurance: −$748
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,256
• Net cashflow: $-2,394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,771

Max offer price $1,372,101

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $448,750
• Closing costs: $53,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 Cognewaugh Rd Cos Cob, CT	5.0	4.0	3580	$11,500	$3.21	10d	1	0.15mi
488 Cognewaugh Rd Cos Cob, CT	3.0	2.5	3116	$12,000	$3.85	2d	1	0.19mi
163 Macgregor Dr Stamford, CT	4.0	2.5	3070	$7,500	$2.44	23d	1	1.20mi
267 Thunder Hill Dr Stamford, CT	3.0	2.0	2310	$4,300	$1.86	44d	1	1.33mi
511 Roxbury Rd Stamford, CT	4.0	2.5	2463	$6,000	$2.44	2d	1	1.46mi
57 Drum Hill Ln Stamford, CT	4.0	3.5	2995	$8,750	$2.92	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $1,795,000 Under Contract 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,795,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on marketlisting id $1,795,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Sun-drenched and privately set on 1.45 level acres, this spacious 4-bedroom, 3 full bath mid-country home offers tranquility just minutes from town and steps from Mianus River Park. Sliding doors connect the indoor living spaces to the outdoor deck, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living ideal for entertaining. A finished lower level provides flexible space for a playroom or home office. Recent improvements include a newer roof, boiler, and well pump, offering a solid foundation for future updates and personal touches. Surrounded by peaceful grounds and nature, this special property presents a wonderful opportunity to create lasting memories. Existing in-ground pool is not operational and will convey as-is.

9. 2026-06-03
   listed $1,795,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (717 chars)

   Sun-drenched and privately set on 1.45 level acres, this spacious 4-bedroom, 3 full bath mid-country home offers tranquility just minutes from town and steps from Mianus River Park. Sliding doors connect the indoor living spaces to the outdoor deck, creating seamless indoor-outdoor living ideal for entertaining. A finished lower level provides flexible space for a playroom or home office. Recent improvements include a newer roof, boiler, and well pump, offering a solid foundation for future updates and personal touches. Surrounded by peaceful grounds and nature, this special property presents a wonderful opportunity to create lasting memories. Existing in-ground pool is not operational and will convey as-is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,614 · $718/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $23,514 · $1,959/mo
• Expected delta: +$14,900/yr (+$1,242/mo · 173.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $128,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$100,548
• − Property taxes: −$8,614
• − Insurance: −$8,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,311
• − Management: −$10,311
• − Depreciation: −$52,218
• Taxable loss: −$62,091
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$14,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenwich School District
• NCES district ID: 0901710
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $129,257
• Composite: 65.67/100
• National rank: #461
• State rank: #12 of 153 in CT

Livability — Cos Cob

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #5178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,667
• Population (ZIP): 7,667

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Estonian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Spanish 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.90%
• Current HPI: 191.0957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+130.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $1,795,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $1,750,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-06-03 Coming Soon $1,795,000 GMLS
• 2004-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $1,092,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-08 Sold (MLS) $1,092,000 GMLS
• 2003-11-05 Listed $1,325,000 GMLS
• 2001-02-23 Sold (MLS) — GMLS
• 2000-07-12 Listed $1,290,000 GMLS
• 1998-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $632,500 Public Records
• 1998-02-20 Sold (MLS) $632,500 GMLS
• 1997-09-15 Listed $690,000 GMLS
• 1995-11-12 Sold (MLS) — GMLS
• 1995-04-12 Listed $655,000 GMLS
• 1994-12-02 Listed $779,000 GMLS
• 1994-12-02 Sold (MLS) — GMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,614 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.