139 Honey Fork Rd

Elkhorn City, KY 41554

$78,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,027/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,683/yr
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.32%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#394 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Ridge High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 410 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 54% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pike County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.