139 Honey Fork Rd · Elkhorn City, KY 41554

$78,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Manufactured · 12 Days on market

Built 2018 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for an affordable home, look no further! This 2018 Clayton home sets on . 29th of an acre, featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 bathroom. It would make the perfect family home at a reasonable price.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2018
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.29 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Cooktop

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#394 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Ridge High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 410 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 54% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pike County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $23,684
• Equity at exit: $35,072

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $64,428
• Equity at exit: $54,050

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41554

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $958/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $246	+0% $224	+5% $202	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $183	+0% $224	+5% $264	+10% $305
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $243	base $224	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $183

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $78,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $78,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 555-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $78,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $958 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$958
• − Insurance: −$1,188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$986
• − Management: −$986
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $1,570
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$377
• After-tax cash flow: $2,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Elkhorn City

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #394
• US rank: #18934

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,018

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 17% Iranian 9% Lithuanian 8%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+420.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $78,000 EKAR
• 2024-07-11 Sold (MLS) $69,900 EKAR
• 2024-05-03 Price Changed $69,900 EKAR
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $75,900 EKAR
• 2024-02-08 Listed $79,900 EKAR
• 2009-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records
• 2007-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $958 · +23.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.