5387 County Road 154 #6

Cattle Creek, CO 81601

$285,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,859/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $492/mo
• Annual: $5,909/yr
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.40%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#419 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roaring Fork School District No. Re-1 (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 86 in CO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 0.4% in Cattle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.