5387 County Road 154 #6 · Cattle Creek, CO 81601

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1982 Est $254k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in the popular Strive Communities Park. Close to RAFTA for an easy commute into Aspen. Mobile home sale only, no land included.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1982

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $285k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 0.4% in Cattle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#419 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roaring Fork School District No. Re-1 (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 86 in CO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 171 units permitted in Garfield County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garfield County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $285,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.40%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,016
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5387 County Road 154 #93	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	3mo	$265,000	$182	84
5387 County Road 154 Rd #19	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$206	83
5387 County road 154 #72	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+8%)	9mo	$275,000	$189	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-23,281
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-12,600
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81601

• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,859 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,033/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $573	+0% $492	+5% $412	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $379	+0% $492	+5% $605	+10% $718
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $565	base $492	+0.5pp $419	+1.0pp $343

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-05
   listed $285,000
2. 2026-04-05
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,033 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$534/yr (+$45/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$1,033
• − Insurance: −$2,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,744
• − Management: −$2,744
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $5,596/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roaring Fork School District No. Re-1
• NCES district ID: 0804260
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,893
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6150
• State rank: #37 of 86 in CO

Livability — Cattle Creek

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #26108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cattle Creek, CO
• County: Garfield County · 31,911 people
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 16,844
• Household income: $109,129
• Rent vs Own: 35.6% rent · 64.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 318.0

Population outlook (Garfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,756 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 64,952 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 64,937 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 62,413 · +1.1%
• By 2100: 55,730 · -9.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garfield

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 47.7% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.1pp toward D · 2008: -0.0pp · 2024: 2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.1 2020: D+2.3 2016: R+7.1 2012: R+4.9 2008: R+0.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -325.76%
• Current HPI: 561.7126
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.79%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Delisted — AGMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $285,000 AGMLS

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,033 · +102.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.