1028 Orchard Pond Ct

Lake Zurich, IL 60047

$529,900D+

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,572 sqft · Built 2002 · Townhouse · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax + insurance: −$955
• HOA: −$477
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,102
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-780/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $148,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $530k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-780/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $518k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $525k (1.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $514k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#175 in IL, #3,345 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Zurich CUSD 95 (suburban): math 47% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #44 of 620 in IL (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $340k; list at $530k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.5% in Lake Zurich — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($176k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.