13955 W Walnut Grove Rd #26

Walnut Grove, CA 95690

$79,500B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,509/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax + insurance: −$559
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $216/mo
• Annual: $2,591/yr
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.64%
• DSCR: 2.54
• 1% rule: 1.90%
• Cash to close: $22,260

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,127 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Galt Joint Union High (town): math 75% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #137 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Hope Elementary (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 177 students, 76% FRL); Galt High (996 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Galt Joint Union High average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.