13955 W Walnut Grove Rd #26 · Walnut Grove, CA 95690

$79,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 594 sqft · Manufactured · 27 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Pristine 2003 Golden West single-wide manufactured home (44' x 13'6), 2x4 construction/sheetrock-insulated walls. Space rent $800/mo includes water, sewer, garbage; electric metered; propane via Suburban Gas. Features Hardie Board siding, double-pane windows, upgraded propane HVAC, 30-gal water heater, fresh interior paint, premium flooring, and quartz counters. New metal roof. 4' x 3' shower, all appliances, 8' x 20' porch, 120-sq-ft Tuff Shed plus additional storage, fenced small-dog yard, boat launch, and community garden. Riverside MHP on the Mokelumne River. San Joaquin County (95690). ~30 min Sacramento, ~25 min Stockton. Contact park for residency rules.

Key facts

• Premium flooring
• 30-gal water heater
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• HARDIE BOARD SIDING
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• UPGRADED PROPANE HVAC
• 30-GAL WATER HEATER
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• PREMIUM FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease required ($800)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached covered parking; Covered parking; Boat dock
• Utilities: Propane; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public water; Private sewer; Internet available; 220V outlet in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Single wide; Updated/remodeled; Built in 2003
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood skirting; Golden West make (manufactured home)
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Boat dock access; Storage area, workshop and sheds; Front yard; Fence; River access

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Kitchen island; Stone and synthetic counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Hood over range; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (master bedroom listed)
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Covered deck and porch; Window coverings; Dual pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,127 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Galt Joint Union High (town): math 75% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #137 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($550 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,307 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.64%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.43% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $25,445
• Equity at exit: $37,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $69,483
• Equity at exit: $59,649

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95690

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,509 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $271	-5% $243	+0% $216	+5% $188	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $156	+0% $216	+5% $276	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $236	base $216	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $79,500 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,500 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,500 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $79,500 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,500 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,500 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,105
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$5,516
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $1,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2003 Golden West single-wide manufactured home is in good condition with recent upgrades and improvements, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and attract more renters
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhance curb appeal and attract more renters ↑
• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Upgrade appliances — Modern appliances can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galt Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0614820
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 48.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $62,916
• Composite: 44.24/100
• National rank: #2844
• State rank: #137 of 517 in CA

Livability — Walnut Grove

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1127
• US rank: #25663

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,793

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 39% Two or more races 11% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 46% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Current HPI: 276.828
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B