2605 17th Ave

Canyon, TX 79015

$183,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax + insurance: −$338
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-60/mo
• Annual: $-723/yr
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $51,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-723/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#273 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reeves-Hinger El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 636 students, 44% FRL); Canyon J H (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 548 students, 27% FRL); Canyon H S (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 1,082 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.