2605 17th Ave · Canyon, TX 79015

$183,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 6,970 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Near Canyon HS and city park. New furnace. New roof coming after hail last year.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New roof
• 6,970 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW FURNACE
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family house; Living area approximately 1,106 sq ft
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 6,970 sq ft

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $183k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-723/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#273 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reeves-Hinger El (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #257 of 4,322 statewide, top 6%, 636 students, 44% FRL); Canyon J H (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B+, #128 of 1,662 statewide, top 8%, 548 students, 27% FRL); Canyon H S (math 63% / reading 68%, grade B, #193 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 1,082 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,617 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-25,171
• Equity at exit: $27,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,989
• Equity at exit: $15,822

Cash invested: $51,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79015

• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$960
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,139/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $172,355

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-8	+0% $-60	+5% $-112	+10% $-164
Rent	-10% $-184	-5% $-122	+0% $-60	+5% $2	+10% $63
Rate	-1.0pp $32	-0.5pp $-14	base $-60	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-156

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,750
• Closing costs: $5,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2602 17th Ave Canyon, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,695	$1.30	23d	1	0.02mi
2415 17th Ave Canyon, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	45d	1	0.15mi
1310 23rd St Canyon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	738	$850	$1.15	15d	1	0.45mi
2801 Mable Dr Canyon, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$949	$1.27	23d	1	0.50mi
1901 17th Ave Canyon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,150	$1.51	15d	14	0.53mi
732 Foster Ln Canyon, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,550	$1.45	45d	1	0.57mi
2104 9th Ave Canyon, TX	3.0	1.0	888	$1,295	$1.46	45d	1	0.67mi
6th Ave Canyon, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$816	$0.82	15d	2	0.76mi
2813 Conner Dr Canyon, TX	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,950	$1.44	45d	1	0.85mi
2011 5th Ave Canyon, TX	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,600	$1.30	45d	1	0.96mi
406 38th St Unit C Canyon, TX	2.0	2.0	1071	$1,795	$1.68	45d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $183,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $183,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $183,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $183,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $183,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $183,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $183,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $183,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $183,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $183,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $183,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 80-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $183,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,139 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,349 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,251
• − Property taxes: −$3,139
• − Insurance: −$915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,504
• − Management: −$1,504
• − Depreciation: −$5,324
• Taxable loss: −$3,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$922
• After-tax cash flow: $199/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #6380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 23,765
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,765
• Household income: $83,445
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 538.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.02%
• Current HPI: 181.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.61%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $183,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,139 · +14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.