135 Red Chimney Dr

Warwick, RI 02886

$650,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,409
• Tax + insurance: −$857
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,443
• Net cashflow: $1,161/mo
• Annual: $13,934/yr
• Cap rate: 8.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.66%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $182,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $650k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $650k).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($630k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $630k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in RI, #2,425 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
• Warwick (urban): math 15% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #25 of 39 in RI (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 471 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kent County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $335k; list at $650k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.7% in Warwick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.