None bd · None ba ·
39,569 sqft ·
Built 1907
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 107 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$257,470/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$34,087
Tax + insurance
−$10,833
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$54,069
Net cashflow
$158,481/mo
Annual
$1,901,775/yr
Cap rate
35.55%
Cash-on-cash
104.49%
DSCR
5.65
1% rule
3.96%
Cash to close
$1,820,000
Investor read
This is a multifamily listed at $6.50M. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $158k ($1.90M/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($257k rent vs $6.50M).
It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($5.92M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $5.92M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $357k of equity ($45k loan paydown + $312k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.1%/yr); 80 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.82M cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$572k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 35.6% vs local median 2.2% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $257,470/mo this rent would consume 5113% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior paint
— Significant peeling and wear
Major: roof
— No visible roof, but the exterior suggests a need for extensive repair
Major: exterior structure
— Significant wear and tear
CashFlowRE · CFR-3GV1SW1ZAPW559
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29