None bd · None ba ·
39,569 sqft ·
Built 1907
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 56 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$270,554/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$34,087
Tax + insurance
−$10,833
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$56,816
Net cashflow
$168,818/mo
Annual
$2,025,811/yr
Cap rate
37.46%
Cash-on-cash
111.31%
DSCR
5.95
1% rule
4.16%
Cash to close
$1,820,000
Investor read
This is a multifamily listed at $6.50M. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $169k ($2.03M/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($271k rent vs $6.50M).
It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($6.30M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $6.30M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $357k of equity ($45k loan paydown + $312k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.1%/yr); 63 active listings in the ZIP; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $1.82M cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$572k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 37.5% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $270,554/mo this rent would consume 5372% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 3769% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: exterior paint
— Significant peeling and wear
Major: roof
— No visible roof, but the exterior suggests a need for extensive repair
Major: exterior structure
— Significant wear and tear
CashFlowRE · CFR-3GV1SW1ZAPW559
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29