9200 Redbridge Rd

Manchester, VA 23236

$399,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$459
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $11/mo
• Annual: $128/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($128/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (18.7% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $325k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reams Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 564 students, 82% FRL); Providence Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 1,068 students, 79% FRL); Monacan High (math 49% / reading 86%, grade B, #183 of 319 statewide, top 58%, 1,631 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 26% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $400k implies a 378% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.