9200 Redbridge Rd · Manchester, VA 23236

$399,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1973 0.37 ac lot $154/sqft · at area comps Est $390k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Full of charm, character & endless potential, this classic Colonial offers warm, inviting spaces that truly feel like home. Featuring 4 bedrooms, 3.5 baths & situated on over a third of an acre in convenient North Chesterfield just off the Arboretum, this home is brimming with opportunity for its next owner. The inviting family room centers around a beautiful brick hearth perfect for cozy nights by the fire, movie nights & holiday memories. Just off the family room, the massive screened porch & expansive deck create an ideal setup for barbecues, birthday parties, graduation celebrations & gatherings of all sizes. The formal dining room is generously sized &

Key facts

• 0.37 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Driveway parking; Off-street paved parking; Basement access to parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; Composition roof; Brick, drywall, and wood siding construction; Below-grade finished area and unfinished area exist
• Construction: Built with brick, drywall, and wood siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Screened porch; Porch; Stoop; Paved driveway; Back yard fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms on second floor (including Bedroom 2, Bedroom 3, Bedroom 4)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Second-floor full bath with tub and shower; Basement full bath with shower
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Fireplace; Pantry; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($128/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#101 in VA, #3,202 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Reams Road Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #900 of 1,108 statewide, top 83%, 564 students, 82% FRL); Providence Middle (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #274 of 342 statewide, top 81%, 1,068 students, 79% FRL); Monacan High (math 49% / reading 86%, grade B, #183 of 319 statewide, top 58%, 1,631 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 26% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $400k implies a 378% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $324,964 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,907
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 2.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9051 Redbridge Rd	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,305 (-11%)	6mo	$411,950	$179	69
9209 Groomfield Rd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,208 (-15%)	10mo	$415,000	$188	63
142 Heppel Rd	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,676 (+3%)	4mo	$449,000	$168	62
440 Trickling Creek Rd	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,456 (-5%)	6mo	$480,000	$195	57
208 Chasnell Rd	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,238 (-14%)	2mo	$380,000	$170	57
110 Carbe Ct	0.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,238 (-14%)	10mo	$370,000	$165	54
8802 E Wadsworth Pl	0.47mi	4/3.5	2,381 (-8%)	13mo	$415,000	$174	52
121 Swanage Rd	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,314 (-11%)	13mo	$410,000	$177	47
9332 Becar Rd	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,238 (-14%)	14mo	$350,000	$156	46
101 Aldersmead Rd	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,450 (-5%)	14mo	$408,500	$167	43
225 Redmead Ln	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,765 (+7%)	15mo	$475,000	$172	37
8601 Claypool Rd	0.69mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,287 (-12%)	7mo	$340,000	$149	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-61,630
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-42,395
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23236

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$293 /mo · $3,514/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,236

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $124	+0% $11	+5% $-103	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-118	+0% $11	+5% $139	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $212	-0.5pp $112	base $11	+0.5pp $-93	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8501 Woodward Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1826	$2,200	$1.20	25d	1	1.07mi
8749 Bethany Creek Ave Unit 1546152P Richmond, VA	5.0	2.0	2098	$5,433	$2.59	21d	1	1.12mi
610 Lemoine Ln North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,550	$1.42	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $399,900 Active 2098-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   historical $399,900 2098-char remark
3. 1981-01-29
   soldstatus $83,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,514 · $293/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,514 · $293/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$3,514
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,120
• − Management: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$6,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,630
• After-tax cash flow: $1,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Manchester

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #3202

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 27,903
• Household income: $110,499
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 419.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -192.45%
• Current HPI: 284.4448
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.78%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+378.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $399,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $399,900 CVRMLS
• 1981-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $83,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,514 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.