2611 Upper River Road Rd

Great Falls, MT 59405

$43,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,378/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $725/mo
• Annual: $8,701/yr
• Cap rate: 28.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.89%
• DSCR: 4.51
• 1% rule: 3.20%
• Cash to close: $12,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $43k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: fence — Significant damage and missing sections
• Major: exterior siding — Weathered and damaged