2611 Upper River Road Rd · Great Falls, MT 59405

$43,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1982 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large ample kitchen
• Covered deck
• Wood stove

Tags

• WOOD STOVE
• CEILING FAN
• LARGE AMPLE KITCHEN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED DECK
• SHED FOR HOUSING OUTSIDE ITEMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $43k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $725 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $43k).
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $297 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.89%
• DSCR: 4.51
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,316
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2305 1st St S	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	942 (+2%)	22mo	$205,000	$218	57
1002 21st Ave S	0.69mi	2/1.0	968 (+5%)	6mo	$275,000	$284	51
224 16th Ave S	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (+13%)	12mo	$269,000	$259	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $40,169
• Equity at exit: $6,411

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $98,408
• Equity at exit: $3,718

Cash invested: $12,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59405

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$225
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$54 /mo · $645/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $725

Break-even live

Break-even rent $460

Max offer price $43,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,750
• Closing costs: $1,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricelisting id $43,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,409
• − Property taxes: −$645
• − Insurance: −$1,012
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$1,251
• Taxable income: $8,574
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,058
• After-tax cash flow: $6,643/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior and fencing, significantly impacting its value and appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major fence — Significant damage and missing sections
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and damaged

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace fence — Improves safety and curb appeal
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Enhances home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
fence · Significant damage and missing sections	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both repair and replace fence — Improves safety and curb appeal ↑
• Both repair and replace exterior siding — Enhances home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Great Falls H S
• NCES district ID: 3013050
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,586
• Composite: 28.03/100
• National rank: #6846
• State rank: #79 of 116 in MT

Livability — Great Falls

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #2473

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Great Falls, MT
• County: Cascade County · 75,427 people
• City population: 75,427
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• Population (ZIP): 33,350
• Household income: $59,449
• Rent vs Own: 43.0% rent · 57.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1123.0

Population outlook (Cascade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,936 people
• By 2030: 81,376 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 79,435 · -3.1%
• By 2050: 77,906 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 78,595 · -4.1%
• By 2100: 79,997 · -2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cascade

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.3) · D 37.3% · R 59.6% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -22.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.3 2020: R+19.7 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+9.1 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.87%
• Current HPI: 213.0016
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Great Falls, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $120,000 FSBO.com