3202 Shattuck Ave

Berkeley, CA 94705

$799,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,238 sqft · Built 1904 · MultiFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,690/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,190
• Tax + insurance: −$1,119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,405
• Net cashflow: $-24/mo
• Annual: $-283/yr
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.13%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $223,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $799k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-283/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $795k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $669k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($787k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $669k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#74 in CA, #2,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Berkeley Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #175 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $235k; list at $799k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.0% in Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,690/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($168k/yr) (locally 473% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.