307 NE 1st St

Morning Sun, IA 52640

$99,900A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,178/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $303/mo
• Annual: $3,632/yr
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.98%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#386 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morning Sun Community School District (rural): math 80% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #167 of 330 in IA (top 51%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Morning Sun Elementary School (math 84% / reading 74%, grade A, #71 of 616 statewide, top 15%, 124 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Louisa County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.