307 NE 1st St · Morning Sun, IA 52640

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1995 0.28 ac lot $64/sqft · 33% below area Est $149k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom 2 full bath manufactured home with some updates in a quiet area close to school. Spacious master bedroom with large master bath. Newer flooring and carpet. Large newer back deck with plenty of back yard space. Off street parking on paved driveway.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Dining area

Tags

• AMPLE CABINETRY
• DINING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ATTACHED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: No fencing; Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating
• Interior features: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#386 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Morning Sun Community School District (rural): math 80% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #167 of 330 in IA (top 51%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Morning Sun Elementary School (math 84% / reading 74%, grade A, #71 of 616 statewide, top 15%, 124 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Louisa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Louisa County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.98%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,410
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -33.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
208 E Division St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,660 (+6%)	4mo	$112,000	$67	82
206 NE 1st St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-2%)	23mo	$144,000	$94	71
101 SE Union St	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,482 (-6%)	7mo	$221,545	$149	71
101 SE Union St	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,482 (-6%)	7mo	$221,545	$149	71
104 SE 2nd St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-4%)	14mo	$147,000	$98	70
110 N Church St	0.24mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	19mo	$62,500	$40	66
115 NE 1st St	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,440 (-8%)	12mo	$140,000	$97	64
108 SE 4th St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,385 (-12%)	10mo	$14,000	$10	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.56% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $28,987
• Equity at exit: $42,472

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $79,079
• Equity at exit: $63,611

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52640

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $746/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $359	-5% $331	+0% $303	+5% $274	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $256	+0% $303	+5% $349	+10% $396
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $328	base $303	+0.5pp $277	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,900 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 39 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
11. 2026-05-16
    historical Active Under Contract 530-char remark
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $99,900 Active 530-char remark
13. 2019-02-20
    soldstatus $51,750
14. 2019-02-15
    soldstatus $52,000 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bath manufactured home with some updates in a quiet area close to school. Spacious master bedroom with large master bath. Newer flooring and carpet. Large newer back deck with plenty of back yard space. Off street parking on paved driveway.

15. 2018-10-18
    listed $59,900 257-char remark

    Show marketing remark (257 chars)

    3 bedroom 2 full bath manufactured home with some updates in a quiet area close to school. Spacious master bedroom with large master bath. Newer flooring and carpet. Large newer back deck with plenty of back yard space. Off street parking on paved driveway.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $746 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,157 · $96/mo
• Expected delta: +$411/yr (+$34/mo · 55.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,131
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$746
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,130
• − Management: −$1,130
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$509
• After-tax cash flow: $3,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morning Sun Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1919770
• Math proficiency: 80% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,791
• Composite: 60.87/100
• National rank: #1626
• State rank: #167 of 330 in IA

Livability — Morning Sun

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #8194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Morning Sun, IA
• Population (ZIP): 1,201

Population outlook (Louisa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,061 people
• By 2030: 10,869 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 10,400 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 9,878 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,425 · -14.8%
• By 2100: 9,584 · -13.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 2% Serbian 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Louisa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.0) · D 28.8% · R 69.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.2pp · 2024: -41.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.0 2020: R+33.3 2016: R+28.7 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Current HPI: 150.788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+50.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $90,000 IAR
• 2026-06-11 Pending — IAR
• 2026-05-16 Contingent — IAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $99,900 IAR
• 2019-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $51,750 Public Records
• 2019-02-15 Sold (MLS) $52,000 IAR
• 2018-10-18 Listed $59,900 IAR

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $746 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.