278 Pelican Dr N

Oldsmar, FL 34677

$165,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 199 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$681
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-542/yr
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.91%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-542/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#49 in FL, #908 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oldsmar Elementary School (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 546 students, 52% FRL); Joseph L. Carwise Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,098 students, 38% FRL); East Lake High School (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 2,286 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $165k implies a 346% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.7% in Oldsmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.