278 Pelican Dr N · Oldsmar, FL 34677

$165,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,128 sqft · Manufactured public records · 199 Days on market

Built 1985 4,029 sqft lot Est $183k · 10% under $60/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't miss this desirable and very active community of Gull-Aire Village! This is one of the most highly sought-after 55+ communities in Pinellas County. With HOA fees at only $60/mo and the ability to rent out your home after only 1 year of ownership, the possibilities are endless. This home includes a rare LARGE GARAGE! You own your own land. The owner has just replaced the range and refrigerator! One pet-any size. You can walk to AMC Theatres, Beall's, Marshalls, Earth Fare, Pet Smart and Dollar Store. Restaurants nearby include Shaker and Peel, Craft Street Kitchen, and Eve's Family Restaurant. Just minutes to Westfield Mall, Walmart, Publix, and Countryside Hospital. About 20 minutes t

Key facts

• 4,029 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Third-party listing; Directions: East on Tampa Road, right on Gull Air Blvd, right on Pelican
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $60; total annual fees $720; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Gull Air Village Association with required monthly fee of $60; HOA fee includes common area taxes, pool, and recreational facilities; Association approval required; Community features: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, sidewalks, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; North-facing entry
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured double wide
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Crown molding; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-542/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (4.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.7% in Oldsmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#49 in FL, #908 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oldsmar Elementary School (math 60% / reading 57%, grade B-, #735 of 2,144 statewide, top 35%, 546 students, 52% FRL); Joseph L. Carwise Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,098 students, 38% FRL); East Lake High School (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 2,286 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $165k implies a 346% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.91%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,736
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Dolphin Dr N	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+2%)	2mo	$235,000	$204	89
245 Pelican Dr N	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-2%)	10mo	$169,900	$154	77
43 New Fawn Ct #28	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,104 (-2%)	17mo	$179,000	$162	52
59 Cottagewood Dr #142	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	18mo	$190,000	$152	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-35,087
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-55,351
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34677

• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,976 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,228/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,033

Max offer price $157,025

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $2	+0% $-45	+5% $-92	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-123	+0% $-45	+5% $33	+10% $111
Rate	-1.0pp $38	-0.5pp $-3	base $-45	+0.5pp $-88	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
225 Tarpon Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,400	$2.14	6d	1	0.12mi
211 Countryside Key Blvd Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,899	$1.48	26d	1	0.16mi
1 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	12d	1	0.30mi
86 Pelican Dr N Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	26d	1	0.38mi
116 Dolphin Dr S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$2,495	$2.29	0d	1	0.41mi
3001 Landmark Blvd #101 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1353	$1,950	$1.44	26d	1	0.50mi
2012 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,200	$1.92	26d	1	0.56mi
161 Lakeside Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,000	$1.83	19d	1	0.59mi
107 Windward Pl Unit 107 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$2,000	$2.28	19d	1	0.64mi
1924 Dover Ct Oldsmar, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,315	$1.82	9d	1	0.64mi
108 Nina Way #3 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,695	$1.55	26d	1	0.66mi
414 Meadow Ln Oldsmar, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,450	$2.07	26d	1	0.66mi
114 Meadow Ln #114 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	26d	1	0.69mi
112 Woodlands Ct Unit 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	26d	1	0.76mi
3455 Countryside Blvd #4 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$2,050	$2.06	6d	1	0.76mi
36 Magnolia Ct #4 Safety Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	19d	1	0.79mi
122 Caryl Way Bldg 1 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,850	$1.69	26d	1	0.82mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	4d	1	0.82mi
109 Nancy Dr Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,750	$1.60	18d	1	0.82mi
218 Caryl Way Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,740	$1.59	14d	1	0.83mi
3590 Magnolia Ridge Cir Unit G Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	1090	$1,695	$1.56	26d	1	0.86mi
3460 Countryside Blvd #60 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1349	$2,500	$1.85	9d	1	0.88mi
109 Pine Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,300	$2.18	26d	1	0.90mi
103 Palmetto Ct #103 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	26d	1	0.90mi
207 Palmetto Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,700	$1.61	26d	1	0.90mi
3583 Whispering Oaks Ln Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1124	$1,800	$1.60	26d	1	0.91mi
1810 Driftwood Cir S Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1456	$2,700	$1.85	6d	1	0.91mi
284 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	26d	1	0.92mi
336 Woodlake Wynde Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$2,000	$2.16	19d	1	0.92mi
2998 Bonaventure Cir #104 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,723	$1.91	0d	1	0.92mi
3028 Bonaventure Cir #103 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	26d	1	0.94mi
132 E Cypress Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,800	$1.71	21d	1	0.97mi
2897 Thaxton Dr #65 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1390	$2,280	$1.64	6d	1	0.97mi
274 Cypress Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,600	$1.52	26d	1	0.98mi
135 W Cypress Ct Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1054	$2,100	$1.99	26d	1	0.98mi
2879 Thaxton Dr #55 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1396	$2,200	$1.58	6d	1	0.98mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,000	$1.42	6d	1	1.01mi
207 Woodlake Wynde Unit 207 Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	924	$1,900	$2.06	0d	1	1.01mi
2843 Thaxton Dr #38 Palm Harbor, FL	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	26d	1	1.01mi
212 Cypress Ln Oldsmar, FL	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,600	$1.52	9d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 182 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $165,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    price $169,900
16. 2026-03-29
    price $179,999
17. 2026-01-20
    price $188,000
18. 2025-12-04
    listed $195,000 Active
19. 2024-10-21
    historical
20. 2024-08-11
    status Active
21. 2024-08-10
    historical
22. 2024-07-30
    price $235,000
23. 2024-06-24
    price $249,000
24. 2024-06-12
    price $259,000
25. 2024-05-24
    price $266,000
26. 2024-04-13
    listed $269,500 Active
27. 2023-08-01
    historical
28. 2023-07-11
    price $199,000
29. 2023-06-28
    price $209,000
30. 2023-06-07
    price $215,000
31. 2023-05-28
    price $224,900
32. 2023-05-15
    price $228,000
33. 2023-04-14
    listed $229,000 Active
34. 2016-04-29
    historical
35. 2015-10-02
    listed $134,900 Active
36. 2004-09-16
    listed $114,900
37. 2004-09-06
    historical
38. 2004-06-06
    listed $116,000
39. 1997-12-31
    soldstatus $37,000
40. 1988-11-15
    soldstatus $52,500
41. 1986-08-19
    soldstatus $16,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,228
• − Insurance: −$5,944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,897
• − Management: −$1,897
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,015
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$724
• After-tax cash flow: $182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oldsmar

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #908

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oldsmar, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 22,762
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,762
• Household income: $93,474
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.17%
• Current HPI: 296.7786
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+917.4% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $179,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $188,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-11 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $266,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-13 Listed $269,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-28 Price Changed $209,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-07 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-28 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-15 Price Changed $228,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Listed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-02 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-16 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-06 Listed $116,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1988-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1986-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $16,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,228 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.