1621 Dayton St

Ellsworth, IA 50075

$125,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,085/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $33/mo
• Annual: $396/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.13%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $33 ($396/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (13.2% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#325 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• South Hamilton Community School District (rural): math 77% / reading 82% proficiency, ranked #30 of 289 in IA (top 10%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: South Hamilton Elem (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #44 of 616 statewide, top 9%, 362 students, 30% FRL); South Hamilton Middle And High School (math 75% / reading 81%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 328 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.